Activity is picking up in the Australian grain market. Although producer sales are minimal, the export market continues to function. Activity at ports is increasing. January grain shipments are expected to total 3.83 million t, including 2.36 million t of wheat and 965,000 t of barley.
Grain export trade from Kazakhstan has been inactive, although indicative prices have increased. Importers’ demand is weak, while supplies from Russia are growing not only on traditional markets for Kazakh traders, but also in Kazakhstan itself.
The Russian grain market has been generally calm, with export quotes showing minor changes. Players note that export shipments may slow down due to worsening weather (although they have just started to recover).
Estimates of Brazilian corn production in MY 2023-24 continue to decline, but this does not support the quotes. Farmers are harvesting first crop corn of the season 2023-24, with 4% of the areas processed (1% last year).
US corn prices have declined as weather conditions in South America improved production prospects. Low demand for wheat in the U.S. along with rumors of China canceling shipments of some SRW resulted in lower wheat prices.
Export prices for EU grains have increased following the exchange prices, although the quotes showed some decline earlier in the week given ambiguous prospects for wheat exports in the current season and competition with Black Sea traders.
Export quotes for Ukrainian grains have grown slightly amid restrained sales by farmers and increasing importers’ demand. Additional support came from tenders for the purchase of wheat held in Egypt and Lebanon.
The cargo turnover increased by 124,000 t to 714,000 t in the Liepaja FEZ in December compared with November.
Ukrainian Danube ports handled 29.4 million t of cargo from January 1 till November 30, 2023, which is almost six times higher than in the pre-war period, that is before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The volume of grain transportation from Ukraine to foreign markets reached almost 991,000 t in January 1-10, 2024 compared with 2.73 million t in December 2023. About 790,000 t of grain meant for oversea shipments arrived at Ukraine’s ports in the period under review (against 2.1 million t in December).