The Australian grain export market remains seasonally inactive. However, Chinese consumers are still showing demand for feed barley, which is supporting prices. Given dry weather conditions, USDA has lowered its forecast for Australian wheat production and exports in MY 2023-24 to 26 million tons
Brazilian corn prices are supported by strong importers’ demand. At the same time, domestic consumers are showing limited activity and expect lower prices. According to AgRural, farmers harvested 93% of the safrinha corn crop by September 7, while harvesting was already complete by the same time last year.
U.S. corn export quotes have increased despite higher estimate of U.S. corn crop for 2023-24 (+600,000 t to 384.4 million t), as well as the start of harvesting campaign (5% complete by September 10).
Wheat export prices have risen sharply in Kazakhstan. Heavy rains not only hindered harvesting, but also reduced the quality of grain, which had a corresponding impact on quotes.
In Russia, lower export prices are keeping grain supplies high. According to GASC estimates, Egypt has already imported 2.14 million t of wheat in the current season, with main grain supplies coming from Russia (1.55 million t)
Export quotes for EU grains have been mainly growing. At the same time, the September report from Strategie Grains has shown increased forecast of wheat and barley production in the EU in MY 2023-24, but these volumes are still lower than last year.
Export prices for Ukrainian grain have been mostly declining this week. Danube ports continue to operate despite Russia’s attempts to reduce or even stop grain exports from Ukraine through constant attacks on infrastructure.
Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil with October-November shipments have dropped to $800-845/t CIF Mersin. However, no signed deals have been reported. The number of offers has significantly exceeded demand this week.
Trade is weak on the Turkish steel scrap market. Producers of rolled steel still duffer sluggish demand for finished steel products, so they are slow to ink new deals for the procurement of imported scrap. Contracts are now concluded in case of an urgent needed only.
In Egypt, the granular urea market was showing increased consumer activity earlier this week. Producers were selling the fertilizer at $375-455/t FOB for shipments in September. In the mid-week, however, buyers have been showing less interest due to the rapid price increase to $460-470/t FOB.