Grain export trade from Kazakhstan has been inactive, although indicative prices have increased. Importers’ demand is weak, while supplies from Russia are growing not only on traditional markets for Kazakh traders, but also in Kazakhstan itself.
The Russian grain market has been generally calm, with export quotes showing minor changes. Players note that export shipments may slow down due to worsening weather (although they have just started to recover).
Estimates of Brazilian corn production in MY 2023-24 continue to decline, but this does not support the quotes. Farmers are harvesting first crop corn of the season 2023-24, with 4% of the areas processed (1% last year).
US corn prices have declined as weather conditions in South America improved production prospects. Low demand for wheat in the U.S. along with rumors of China canceling shipments of some SRW resulted in lower wheat prices.
Export prices for EU grains have increased following the exchange prices, although the quotes showed some decline earlier in the week given ambiguous prospects for wheat exports in the current season and competition with Black Sea traders.
Export quotes for Ukrainian grains have grown slightly amid restrained sales by farmers and increasing importers’ demand. Additional support came from tenders for the purchase of wheat held in Egypt and Lebanon.
The Black Sea sunflower oil market is showing a price increase. Sellers are offering the product at $880/t CIF Mersin for shipments in January-February, while buyers’ ideas are hovering within $855-860/t CIF Mersin.
The phosphate market has been stable in Brazil. MAP 11:52/12:52 is still offered at $560/t C&F. One of market participants reports that fertilizer purchases made by customers last year have created large carryover stocks, which does not contribute to the growth of MAP prices.
Global urea market players have once again focused on the information on the tender in India. This week, NFL has published the prices of the tender held on January 4, when 2.7 million t of the fertilizer were purchased: levels were within $316.8-359.3/t C&F.
Turkish steel mills continue purchasing imported steel scrap to provide operations in February. Despite quite active negotiations in the second half of the week, the number of fresh deals has been not that significant as many traders expected.